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Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

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  • Vicki M. Bier

Abstract

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and aplication of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include:(a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk‐informed regulation, and possibly the development of “robust” or “reference” prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human perfor‐mance in PRA, including not only human errorperse but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presentinginteresting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicki M. Bier, 1999. "Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 703-710, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:19:y:1999:i:4:p:703-710
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00440.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dean M. Murphy & M. Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, 1996. "The SAM Framework: Modeling the Effects of Management Factors on Human Behavior in Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 501-515, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. James H. Lambert & Rachel K. Jennings & Nilesh N. Joshi, 2006. "Integration of risk identification with business process models," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(3), pages 187-198, September.
    2. Justin Pence & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2020. "A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(6), pages 1183-1211, June.
    3. Rob Goble, 2021. "Through a Glass Darkly: How Natural Science and Technical Communities Looked at Social Science Advances in Understanding Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 414-428, March.
    4. Justin Pence & Ian Miller & Tatsuya Sakurahara & James Whitacre & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2019. "GIS‐Based Integration of Social Vulnerability and Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Advance Emergency Preparedness, Planning, and Response for Severe Nuclear Power Plant Accidents," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1262-1280, June.
    5. Christian C. Blanco & Felipe Caro & Charles J. Corbett, 2019. "Managing Safety‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(10), pages 2197-2213, October.
    6. Ryoji Makino & Kenju Akai & Jun-ichi Takeshita & Takanori Kudo & Keiko Aoki, 2021. "Effect of disclosing the relation between effort and unit reliability on system reliability: An economic experiment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, April.
    7. Robert Goble & Vicki M. Bier, 2013. "Risk Assessment Can Be a Game‐Changing Information Technology—But Too Often It Isn't," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(11), pages 1942-1951, November.
    8. Kenneth Pettersen Gould, 2021. "Organizational Risk: “Muddling Through” 40 Years of Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 456-465, March.

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