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Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change

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  • M. W. Smith
  • D. W. Riseborough

Abstract

Ground temperature monitoring has been proposed as a means of detecting climate change in permafrost regions, although it is well known that the relationship is not simple. This paper presents a functional model of the permafrost‐climate relationship, which accommodates the geographical variations of climatic, surface and soil factors that control ground thermal regime. The model is used to analyse the impacts of climate change on ground temperatures and to assess the design and interpretation of ground temperature monitoring programs. The model suggests that lithologic conditions form the primary local influence on permafrost temperatures, followed by snowcover and vegetation. Results using the model suggest that simple monitoring of active layer depth does not provide a reliable indicator of changes in permafrost temperature conditions, and that monitoring at exposed bedrock sites will produce the most direct signal of climate change on the ground thermal regime. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • M. W. Smith & D. W. Riseborough, 1996. "Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(4), pages 301-309, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:perpro:v:7:y:1996:i:4:p:301-309
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1530(199610)7:43.0.CO;2-R
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    1. Jambaljav Yamkhin & Gansukh Yadamsuren & Temuujin Khurelbaatar & Tsogt‐Erdene Gansukh & Undrakhtsetseg Tsogtbaatar & Saruulzaya Adiya & Amarbayasgalan Yondon & Dashtseren Avirmed & Sharkhuu Natsagdorj, 2022. "Spatial distribution mapping of permafrost in Mongolia using TTOP," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 386-405, October.
    2. Madeleine C. Garibaldi & Philip P. Bonnaventure & Scott F. Lamoureux, 2021. "Utilizing the TTOP model to understand spatial permafrost temperature variability in a High Arctic landscape, Cape Bounty, Nunavut, Canada," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 19-34, January.
    3. Xiaoying Li & Huijun Jin & Long Sun & Hongwei Wang & Yadong Huang & Ruixia He & Xiaoli Chang & Shaopeng Yu & Shuying Zang, 2022. "TTOP‐model‐based maps of permafrost distribution in Northeast China for 1961–2020," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 425-435, October.

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