Numerical Modelling of Ice‐Wedge Polygon Geomorphic Transition

A numerical model is presented to test whether a hillslope diffusion approach can simulate the topographic evolution of some recently developed high‐centred ice‐wedge polygons south of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. The polygons are adjacent to a highway whose construction appears to have triggered their geomorphic transition. The model is calibrated using a light detection and ranging data‐set that captures both the high‐centred polygons and some neighbouring low‐centred polygons that appear to be unaffected by thermokarst. The latter are used to represent initial conditions. Model simulations are analysed to estimate potential fluxes of soil from polygon edges into troughs and the loss of depressional water storage during development of the high‐centred polygons. Overall, a match between the topography of simulated and observed high‐centred polygons suggests that diffusive hillslope processes represent a feasible mechanism driving polygon transition. Rates of soil displacement inferred from optimised simulations, moreover, are within the range previously observed in permafrost terrain with a similar climate. Direct observations of the soil velocity profile in actively transitioning polygons would help resolve whether and to what extent hillslope processes, as opposed to pure thaw‐related subsidence at the polygon edges, drive the development of high‐centred forms in natural systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.