Degradation of permafrost in the Xing'anling Mountains, northeastern China

Permafrost in the Da and Xiao Xing'anling Mountains in northeastern China is warm, thin and sensitive to climatic warming. In the 1970s, the southern limit of permafrost (SLP) was empirically correlated to the −1 to 0°C isotherms of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) in the western part of the Da Xing'anling Mountains, to about 0°C in the northern part of the Songnen Plain, and to 0 to +1°C in the eastern part of the Xiao Xing'anling Mountains. Climate warming and deforestation have led to permafrost degradation as shown by deepening of the active layer, thinning permafrost, rising ground temperatures, expanding taliks and the disappearance of permafrost patches. The present position of the SLP was estimated using the −1.0 to +1.0°C MAAT isotherms for 1991–2000. Compared to the SLP in the 1970s, areas of sporadic discontinuous and isolated patchy permafrost have decreased by 90,000–100,000 km2, or 35–37% of their total areal extent (260,000–270,000 km2) in the 1970s. Recent field observations along the Hei'he to Bei'an Highway, the proposed Mo'he to Daqing Crude Oil Pipeline route and the Hai'lar to Daqing Highway confirm these changes. Continuing northward shifting of the SLP is likely to occur during the next 40–50 years under a warming of 1.0–1.5 °C, reducing the permafrost areal extent to an estimated 35% of that in the 1970s and 1980s. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.