Brazil'S Social Security System: Prospective Trajectory And Reform Alternatives

SUMMARY This article assesses the current status of Brazil's Social Security System in terms of the social and economic development of the Brazilian population it is intended to serve. It starts with a historical overview of the system. Data from a household survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílio) is used to describe the workforce and its relationship with the social security system. The years 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, and 2012 were chosen to give a series of pictures of the Brazilian population at equal intervals but under different legal circumstances with respect to the implementation of social security legislation. Data with regard to beneficiaries and the corresponding expenditures and revenues of the system are also shown. The situation presented is rather bleak considering that, since 1997, expenditure on benefits has consistently surpassed revenues based on payrolls. Some alternative reform options (parametric in nature) are evaluated using simulations. These simulations show that the alternative of postponing the eligibility age would have the greatest positive effect on balancing the books, especially when using 65 years as the minimum pensionable age. This would be the equivalent of eliminating “seniority retirement.” Age testing is also effective for the recipients of survivor's benefit. Eliminating multiple benefits, though not impressive in terms of numbers, is progressive in nature and, therefore, an alternative to be considered. Dissociating the minimum wage from the minimum benefit would have a much larger impact in the long run, but the measure is highly unpopular and would most probably not be approved if proposed by the Government. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.