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Commitment decisions with partial information updating

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  • Mark E. Ferguson
  • Gregory A. DeCroix
  • Paul H. Zipkin

Abstract

In this paper, we extend the results of Ferguson M. Naval Research Logistics 50, 2003, 917–936. on an end‐product manufacturer's choice of when to commit to an order quantity from its parts supplier. During the supplier's lead‐time, information arrives about end‐product demand. This information reduces some of the forecast uncertainty. While the supplier must choose its production quantity of parts based on the original forecast, the manufacturer can wait to place its order from the supplier after observing the information update. We find that a manufacturer is sometimes better off with a contract requiring an early commitment to its order quantity, before the supplier commits resources. On the other hand, the supplier sometimes prefers a delayed commitment. The preferences depend upon the amount of demand uncertainty resolved by the information as well as which member of the supply chain sets the exchange price. We also show conditions where demand information updating is detrimental to both the manufacturer and the supplier. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Mark E. Ferguson & Gregory A. DeCroix & Paul H. Zipkin, 2005. "Commitment decisions with partial information updating," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(8), pages 780-795, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:52:y:2005:i:8:p:780-795
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.20119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Yimin Wang & Brian Tomlin, 2009. "To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(8), pages 766-779, December.
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    6. Caliskan Demirag, Ozgun & Xue, Weili & Wang, Jie, 2021. "Retailers’ Order Timing Strategies under Competition and Demand Uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Housheng Duan & Jiayan Xu, 2023. "Remanufacturing and Product Recovery Strategies Considering Chain-to-Chain Competition and Power Structures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-26, May.

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