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The effect of crowd density on the expected number of casualties in a suicide attack

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  • Moshe Kress

Abstract

Utilizing elementary geometric and probability considerations, we estimate the effect of crowd blocking in suicide bombing events. It is shown that the effect is quite significant. Beyond a certain threshold, the expected number of casualties decreases with the number of people in the arena. The numerical results of our model are consistent with casualty data from suicide bombing events in Israel. Some operational insights are discussed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Moshe Kress, 2005. "The effect of crowd density on the expected number of casualties in a suicide attack," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 22-29, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:52:y:2005:i:1:p:22-29
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.20049
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.20049
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyle Y. Lin & Moshe Kress & Roberto Szechtman, 2009. "Scheduling policies for an antiterrorist surveillance system," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 113-126, March.
    2. Michael J. Armstrong, 2014. "Modeling Short-Range Ballistic Missile Defense and Israel's Iron Dome System," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1028-1039, October.

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