The next decade of logistics research

Pathbreaking logistics research over the next 10 years will focus on systems problems. Whereas past research generally has taken a “bottom‐up” approach, future investigations are likely to pursue a “top‐down” philosophy. Specifically, attention will concentrate on diagnosis of systems' improvement potentials; easy‐to‐use analytic approaches, inherently approximative, will be devised for quickly ascertaining whether a complex operating system can be substantially and effectively improved. Theories to assist in overall systems design, particularly the setting of boundaries and buffers among systems components, will be developed. At the same time, techniques for accurately forecasting future systems performance will be investigated. Underlying such research will be efforts to gain better understanding of management information requirements, including approaches for monitoring systems performance and providing early warning detection of systems degradation Improved management information systems will have to be coupled with appropriate design of managerial organizations and assignment of decision making responsibilities. Important avenues of research will he development of robust approaches, that is, both mathematical techniques and organizational approaches that are not too adversely affected by limited data, a changing environment, and human frailly. Finally, critical research will be directed at the implementation process, especially the interaction among initiation, design, testing and ultimate adoption This prognosis will explore the above themes in the context of large‐scale, complex systems. The decision areas will encompass inventory replenishment, multiechelon hierarchies for stockage and maintenance, procurement, transportation, scheduling, facilities planning, budgeting, reliability and personnel management.