A theater materiel model

This paper summarizes a theater‐level materiel model which has been developed for the Army as a part of a system for gaming or simulating the military aspects of theater, inter‐theater and continental United States (CONUS) logistics. For purposes of military analysis and computational convenience, the theater under study is divided into geographical subdivisions (i.e., regions) and the military operation is divided into a succession of time periods of specified length. The model operates through one complete cycle for each time period. A cycle starts with the actual materiel status at the beginning of the period in the theater and in each region. (Depending on the problem presented, the “actual materiel status” at the beginning of the period can be either the actual status now pertaining or one that is assumed for the purpose of the problem.) The model applies changes that take place during the period and computes the actual materiel status at the end of the period for the theater and for each region. Authorized materiel status at the end of the period is computed for the theater and for each region, The authorized materiel status is compared with the actual materiel status and the imbalances are computed. The model forecasts the materiel expected to be consumed in the next period in the theater and in each region. It determines the materiel movements by source and destination which should take place in the next time period to correct the imbalances from the preceding time period and provide whatever replacement is necessary for meeting forecasted consumption in the next time period so as to leave each region with its authorized stockage at the end of the next period. Requisitions for materiel to arrive in the order and shipping time are computed using forecasts of consumption and receipts. This completes the cycle. The model described in this paper has been programmed and utilized in war games for the Department of Army and in a special study for the Department of Defense. It should be useful for a wide range of applications, including developing logistic constraints in combat games, and designing and evaluating logistic systems.