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Long‐run Price Prospects for Aluminium and Copper

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  • MARIAN RADETZKI

Abstract

The meaning and significance of alternative price quotations in the aluminium and copper markets are scrutinized. The history of aluminium and copper prices from the beginning of this century is surveyed. The causes to the fast fall in real aluminium prices until 1950, and to the exceptionally high copper prices between 1964 and 1974 are explained. A methodology for long‐run price forecasting in metals markets is developed. This methodology, combined with appropriate empirical data and reasonable assumptions about such key factors as taxation, depletion, and energy costs, is used to forecast the prices of aluminium and copper until the end of this century. L'article étudie le sens et les conséquences des différents cours des marchés de l'aluminium et du cuivre. II fait l'historique des prix de l'aluminium et du cuivre depuis le début de ce siècle. II explique les causes de l'effondrement des cours de l'aluminium en prix constants jusqu'en 1950 et les cours exceptionnellement élevés du cuivre entre 1964 et 1974. L'article présente une méthodologie pour la prévision à long terme de l'évolution des marchés des métaux. Cette méthodologie, combinée avec des données empiriques adéquates et des estimations raisonnables portant sur des facteurs clefs tels que la taxation, la provision pour reconstitution de réserves et les coûts de l'énergie, est utilisée pour prévoir les prix de l'aluminium et du cuivre jusqu'à la fin du siècle. El significado e importancia de la fluctuación de precios en el mercado de cobre y aluminio se analiza en este artículo. Se revisa la variación histórica de los precios de cobre y aluminio desde el comienzo del siglo. Se explican las causas de la caída ràpida en términos reales de los precios de aluminio hasta 1950 y los precios de cobre excepcionalmente altos entre 1964 y 1974. Se desarrolla luego una metodología para el pronóstico a largo plazo de la demanda de metales. Esta metodología. conjuntamente con datos empíricos apropiados, asunciones razonables acerca de factores claves tales como impuesto, agotamiento de la mina y precios de energía, se emplea para pronosticar los precios de cobre y aiuminio hasta el final del siglo.

Suggested Citation

  • Marian Radetzki, 1983. "Long‐run Price Prospects for Aluminium and Copper," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 23-36, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:7:y:1983:i:1:p:23-36
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.1983.tb00016.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mackenzie, Brian W., 1981. "The competitive position of Canadian copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 273-283, December.
    2. Marian Radetzki & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1979. "Can Scrap Save Us From Depletion?," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 365-378, July.
    3. Crowson, P. C. F., 1982. "Investment and future mineral production," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-12, March.
    4. Radetzki, Marian, 1975. "Metal mineral resource exhaustion and the threat to material progress: The case of copper," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2-3), pages 123-136.
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