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Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040

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  • Salil Arora
  • Anant Vyas
  • Larry R. Johnson

Abstract

This paper presents projections of motor vehicles, oil demand, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for India through the year 2040. The populations of highway vehicles and two‐wheelers are projected under three different scenarios on the basis of economic growth and average household size in India. The results show that by 2040, the number of highway vehicles in India would be 206‐309 million. The oil demand projections for the Indian transportation sector are based on a set of nine scenarios arising out of three vehicle‐growth and three fuel‐economy scenarios. The combined effects of vehicle‐growth and fuel‐economy scenarios, together with the change in annual vehicle usage, result in a projected demand in 2040 by the transportation sector in India of 404‐719 million metric tons (8.5‐15.1 million barrels per day). The corresponding annual CO2 emissions are projected to be 1.2‐2.2 billion metric tons.

Suggested Citation

  • Salil Arora & Anant Vyas & Larry R. Johnson, 2011. "Projections of highway vehicle population, energy demand, and CO2 emissions in India to 2040," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 49-62, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:49-62
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.2011.01341.x
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    2. Taoufik Bouachera & Mohammad Mazraati, 2007. "Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 27-51, March.
    3. World Bank, 2005. "India : Road Transport Service Efficiency Study," World Bank Publications - Reports 8356, The World Bank Group.
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    6. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
    7. Singh, Sanjay Kumar, 2006. "Future mobility in India: Implications for energy demand and CO2 emission," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 398-412, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/055, Research Africa Network (RAN).

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