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Impact of market reforms on future patterns of non‐ferrous metal consumption of the former Soviet Union

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  • Istvan Dobozi

Abstract

The study examines the implications of market‐oriented reforms on the prospects of non‐ferrous metal use in the former USSR. Past metal consumption behaviour of the USSR is found to differ considerably from prevailing patterns of the advanced market economies. The study estimates a large ‘intensity‐ of‐use’ gap across metals, which can be taken as a relatively easily mobilizable source for efficiency improvements via market reforms. Two scenarios for economic reforms are modelled, notably radical and gradual. Both are shown to cause a collapse of varying intensity in domestic metal demand lasting until the mid‐1990s. For the subsequent period, a turnaround in consumption trends is projected, which is sharper under the radical reform scenario. The projected collapse of domestic demand argues for an increasing exportable surplus in the former Soviet Union for a range of non‐ferrous metals, with potentially severe depressive effect on world prices.

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  • Istvan Dobozi, 1993. "Impact of market reforms on future patterns of non‐ferrous metal consumption of the former Soviet Union," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 15-32, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:natres:v:17:y:1993:i:1:p:15-32
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-8947.1993.tb00157.x
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    1. Thornton, J. & Mikheeva, N., 1991. "Structural Change and Integration of the Soviet Far East into the World Market: the Case of Negative Value Added," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 91-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
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    1. Dobozi, Istvan, 1996. "Russian gas and aluminium Revisiting the outlook for consumption and exports in a post-depression economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 123-131.

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