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Valuation of R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty

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  • Michi Nishihara

Abstract

We develop a real options model for evaluating and optimizing a research and development (R&D) project. The model captures key features of R&D, including research duration, growth opportunity, debt financing, and uncertainty of technology, demand market, and rival preemption. In the model, we unveil the interactions of key R&D features. The effect of duration on investment depends on whether there is rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of research duration speeds up investment in the presence of rival preemption. Higher uncertainty of technological success, combined with a growth opportunity, accelerates investment. Debt financing greatly decreases time lag between the first stage project and growth project.

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  • Michi Nishihara, 2018. "Valuation of R&D investment under technological, market, and rival preemption uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 200-212, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:39:y:2018:i:2:p:200-212
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.2896
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    Cited by:

    1. Kashmiri, Saim & Gala, Prachi & Nicol, Cameron Duncan, 2019. "Seeking pleasure or avoiding pain: Influence of CEO regulatory focus on firms' advertising, R&D, and marketing controversies," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 227-242.
    2. Nitidetch Koohathongsumrit & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon, 2022. "An integrated FAHP–ZODP approach for strategic marketing information system project selection," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 1792-1809, September.
    3. Stefano Barbieri & Kai A. Konrad & David A. Malueg, 2020. "Preemption contests between groups," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(3), pages 934-961, September.
    4. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Heintz, Katharina & Pryce, Mary T., 2021. "A real options based decision support tool for R&D investment: Application to CO2 recycling technology," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(2), pages 696-711.
    5. Nishihara, Michi & Shibata, Takashi & Zhang, Chuanqian, 2023. "Corporate investment, financing, and exit model with an earnings-based borrowing constraint," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Alexeeva-Alexeev, Inna & Mazas-Perez-Oleaga, Cristina, 2024. "Do ICT firms manage R&D differently? Firm-level and macroeconomic effects on corporate R&D investment: Empirical evidence from a multi-countries context," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    7. Gordon Briest & Elmar Lukas & Sascha H. Mölls & Timo Willershausen, 2020. "Innovation speed under uncertainty and competition," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1517-1527, December.

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