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Forecasting among alternative strategies in the management of uncertainty

Author

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  • Tobias F. Rötheli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland)

Abstract

This paper explores why expectations elicited from corporate decision-makers may fall short of the rational expectations ideal: the formation of an informed forecast may just not be part of the optimal management of uncertainty. The analysis of an investment decision shows that when forecasting is expensive, this strategy is likely to be superseded by the possibility to wait, to switch between projects, or the alternative to eliminate inferior projects over time. Even at low forecasting costs it may be optimal not to forecast and instead to diversify over different projects. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias F. Rötheli, 1998. "Forecasting among alternative strategies in the management of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 179-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:19:y:1998:i:3:p:179-187
    DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1468(199805)19:3<179::AID-MDE878>3.0.CO;2-K
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Small is Beautiful but Size Matters: The Asymmetric Impact of Uncertainty and Sunk Costs on Small and Large Businesses," MPRA Paper 5461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jonathan P. O'Brien & Timothy B. Folta & Douglas R. Johnson, 2003. "A real options perspective on entrepreneurial entry in the face of uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 515-533.
    3. Giovanna Lo Nigro & Azzurra Morreale & Lorenzo Abbate, 2016. "An Open Innovation Decision Support System to Select a Biopharmaceutical R&D Portfolio," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 392-406, September.

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