Through a glass darkly: Cause and effect in refugee resettlement policies

As the ongoing debate among philosophers and social scientists suggests, interpretation of cause and effect in human action is often extremely difficult. Especially complicated for the policy analyst is the problem of determining whether causal relationships are inferred from the evidence or imputed to it. This dilemma characterizes certain types of government activity in which distinctions between policy and implementation, between decisions and actions, and between inputs and outcomes are unclear. The efforts of the federal government between 1960 and 1985 to assist refugees in securing employment illustrate how the flow of events may elude causal explanation, and how conclusions and recommendation for improvement derived from the evidence may prove highly ambiguous. In such instances the most rational course open to policy analysts may be to concede ignorance.