IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v48y2016i6p1135-1168.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion, and Market Freezes

Author

Listed:
  • MEI LI
  • FRANK MILNE
  • JUNFENG QIU

Abstract

This paper studies contagion and market freezes caused by uncertainty in financial network structures. Our model demonstrates that in a financial system where financial institutions are interconnected, a negative shock to an individual financial institution could spread to other institutions, causing market freezes because of creditors' uncertainty about the financial network structure. Our model also reveals that when both a large creditor and a continuum of small creditors are present, the size of the large creditor will affect the severity of market freezes substantially. Moreover, our model is used to examine central bank policies to alleviate market freezes.

Suggested Citation

  • Mei Li & Frank Milne & Junfeng Qiu, 2016. "Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion, and Market Freezes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1135-1168, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:48:y:2016:i:6:p:1135-1168
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12329
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12329?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
    2. Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit, 2010. "Contagion in financial networks," Bank of England working papers 383, Bank of England.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2012. "Asset commonality, debt maturity and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 519-534.
    4. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2011. "Fear of Fire Sales, Illiquidity Seeking, and Credit Freezes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 557-591.
    5. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    6. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-248, April.
    7. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1988. "Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(May), pages 3-22.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2010. "Financial Connections and Systemic Risk," Working Papers 10-20, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    9. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
    10. William Haraf, 1988. "Restructuring Banking & Financial Services in America," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 917739, September.
    11. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    12. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 2010. "Liquidity and valuation in an uncertain world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 1-11, July.
    13. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, April.
    14. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Tirole, 1996. "Interbank lending and systemic risk," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 733-765.
    15. Patrick Bolton & Tano Santos & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Outside and Inside Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 259-321.
    16. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet & Bruno M. Parigi, 2004. "The Lender of Last Resort: A Twenty-First Century Approach," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1085-1115, December.
    17. Amil Dasgupta, 2004. "Financial Contagion Through Capital Connections: A Model of the Origin and Spread of Bank Panics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 1049-1084, December.
    18. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2013. "Fire Sales in a Model of Complexity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2549-2587, December.
    19. Pritsker, Matthew, 2013. "Knightian uncertainty and interbank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 85-105.
    20. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    21. Yehning Chen, 1999. "Banking Panics: The Role of the First-Come, First-Served Rule and Information Externalities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 946-968, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mei Li & Frank Milne & Junfeng Qiu, 2022. "Central bank screening, moral hazard, and the lender of last resort policy," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(3), pages 244-264, September.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    3. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Polyzos, Stathis, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic and spillover effects in stock markets: A financial network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Mei Li & Frank Milne & Junfeng Qiu, 2020. "The LOLR Policy and its Signaling Effect in a Time of Crisis," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 231-252, June.
    5. Jose Fique, 2017. "Retrieving Implied Financial Networks from Bank Balance-Sheet and Market Data," Staff Working Papers 17-30, Bank of Canada.
    6. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2020. "Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mei Li & Frank Milne & Junfeng Qiu, 2013. "Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion," Working Papers 1304, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Ramírez, Carlos, 2020. "Regulating financial networks under uncertainty," ESRB Working Paper Series 107, European Systemic Risk Board.
    3. Michiel Bijlsma & Jeroen Klomp & Sijmen Duineveld, 2010. "Systemic risk in the financial sector; a review and synthesis," CPB Document 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Kox, Henk L.M. & Leeuwen, George van, 2012. "Dynamic market selection in EU business services," MPRA Paper 41016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Paltalidis, Nikos & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Kizys, Renatas & Koutelidakis, Yiannis, 2015. "Transmission channels of systemic risk and contagion in the European financial network," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 36-52.
    6. Michiel Bijlsma & Wim Suyker, 2008. "The credit crisis and the Dutch economy... in eight frequently asked questions," CPB Memorandum 210.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Carlos Ramírez, 2019. "Regulating Financial Networks Under Uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-056, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Mario Di Filippo & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2022. "Unsecured and Secured Funding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 651-662, March.
    9. , & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2013. "Liquidity hoarding," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
    10. Allen, Franklin & Babus, Ana & Carletti, Elena, 2012. "Asset commonality, debt maturity and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 519-534.
    11. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    13. Bakoush, Mohamed & Gerding, Enrico H. & Wolfe, Simon, 2019. "Margin requirements and systemic liquidity risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-95.
    14. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    15. S. Gabrieli & C.-P. Georg, 2014. "A network view on interbank market freezes," Working papers 531, Banque de France.
    16. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Marsili, Matteo, 2012. "Rollover risk, network structure and systemic financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1088-1100.
    17. Valentina Macchiati & Giuseppe Brandi & Tiziana Di Matteo & Daniela Paolotti & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2022. "Systemic liquidity contagion in the European interbank market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(2), pages 443-474, April.
    18. Mei Li & Frank Milne & Junfeng Qiu, 2016. "The Signaling Effect And Optimal Lolr Policy," Working Paper 1353, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    19. Teteryatnikova, Mariya, 2014. "Systemic risk in banking networks: Advantages of “tiered” banking systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 186-210.
    20. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2015. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 115-139, Springer.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:48:y:2016:i:6:p:1135-1168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.