A disaggregated empirical analysis of the determinants of IMF arrangements: Does one model fit all?

Does one model fit all when it comes to the determinants of IMF programs? Certainly claims have been made by the IMF that capital account crisis (CAC) countries are discernibly different in terms of the characteristics that lead them to borrow from it, while other research has claimed that it is only Asian economies that are different from the rest. This paper sets out to examine these issues. It tests various forms of a fairly conventional model to see whether some forms better fit certain groups of countries than others. It then uses the favoured models to estimate the probability of countries having an IMF arrangement. In particular it examines countries that have been identified by the Fund as CAC countries, but it also looks at a number of comparator countries. The findings suggest that there are some differences between low income and middle income countries. Pressures in the foreign exchange market are significant for the latter but not for the former. The paper also discusses differences between regions and within regions. Broadly speaking the findings confirm that Asian economies around the time of the 1997|1998 crisis tended to turn to the IMF for financial support more quickly than would have been anticipated on the basis of the existing best-fitting models. The paper also discusses the implications of the findings for policy and for the reform of the IMF. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.