IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v38y2018i4p425-445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comprehensive look at the return predictability of variance risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Suk Joon Byun
  • Bart Frijns
  • Tai‐Yong Roh

Abstract

The discrepancy between in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictability of common predictors for asset returns has been widely discussed in the literature. We examine the out‐of‐sample predictability and its economic significance of Variance risk premium (VRP), which recently has shown empirical success in predicting asset returns in‐sample. Extensive analysis indicates strong out‐of‐sample predictability of the VRP for U.S. stock index, currencies, credit index, and equity portfolios. However, we do not find any evidence for predictability of bond and commodity markets. We demonstrate economic significance by providing profitable market timing strategies exploiting the out‐of‐sample forecasting power of the VRP in a real time setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Suk Joon Byun & Bart Frijns & Tai‐Yong Roh, 2018. "A comprehensive look at the return predictability of variance risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 425-445, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:4:p:425-445
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21882
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.21882
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.21882?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zakamouline, Valeri & Koekebakker, Steen, 2009. "Portfolio performance evaluation with generalized Sharpe ratios: Beyond the mean and variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1242-1254, July.
    2. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    3. Karstanje, Dennis & Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Economic valuation of liquidity timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5073-5087.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Marrone, James & Xu, Lai & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Stock Return Predictability and Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 633-661, June.
    6. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1177-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Alexander W. Butler & Gustavo Grullon & James P. Weston, 2005. "Can Managers Forecast Aggregate Market Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 963-986, April.
    9. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    10. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.
    11. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:975-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jonathan Ingersoll & Ivo Welch, 2007. "Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1503-1546, 2007 17.
    14. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    15. Jian Chen & Liya Shen & Xiaoke Wang & Haomiao Zuo, 2015. "The role of variance risk premium in predicting excess stock market return: out-of-sample evidences," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(17), pages 1382-1388, November.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    17. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2013. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    18. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    19. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Predictions of Bond Excess Returns and Forward Rates: An Asset Allocation Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3141-3168.
    20. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
    21. Jeff Fleming & Chris Kirby & Barbara Ostdiek, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, February.
    22. Rangvid, Jesper, 2006. "Output and expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 595-624, September.
    23. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:4:p:1393-1414 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Itamar Drechsler & Amir Yaron, 2011. "What's Vol Got to Do with It," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 1-45.
    25. Anderson, Robert M. & Bianchi, Stephen W. & Goldberg, Lisa R., 2012. "Will My Risk Parity Strategy Outperform?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt23t2s950, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    26. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Beyond the Carry Trade: Optimal Currency Portfolios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(5), pages 1037-1056, October.
    27. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa‐Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1007, June.
    28. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Wang, Hao & Zhou, Hao & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Credit default swap spreads and variance risk premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3733-3746.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Su, Yuandong & Lu, Xinjie & Zeng, Qing & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Good air quality and stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Chen, Steven Shu-Hsiu, 2024. "International crash risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Li, Yan & Huo, Jiale & Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Belief-based momentum indicator and stock market return predictability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Qiu, Rui & Liu, Jing & Li, Yan, 2023. "Long-term adjusted volatility: Powerful capability in forecasting stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Liu, Jing & He, Qiubei & Li, Yan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Liang, Chao, 2023. "The change in stock-selection risk and stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    9. Li, Yan & Liang, Chao & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2022. "Forecasting US stock market returns by the aggressive stock-selection opportunity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. George Dotsis, 2024. "A New Index of Option Implied Absolute Deviation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(9), pages 1543-1555, September.
    11. Bai, Fan & Zhang, Yaqi & Chen, Zhonglu & Li, Yan, 2023. "The volatility of daily tug-of-war intensity and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Chang, Hsuan-Ling & Nie, Wei-Ying & Chang, Li-Han & Cheng, Hung-Wen & Yen, Kuang-Chieh, 2023. "Cryptocurrency Momentum and VIX premium," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aloosh, Arash, 2014. "Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability," MPRA Paper 59931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pyun, Sungjune, 2019. "Variance risk in aggregate stock returns and time-varying return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 150-174.
    3. Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
    4. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    5. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Björn Tharann & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 937-965, July.
    6. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    7. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
    8. Qiao, Fang & Xu, Lai & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhou, Hao, 2024. "Variance risk premiums in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2019. "The information content of forward moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 527-541.
    11. Xu, Yahua & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Liguo, 2020. "Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 605-619.
    12. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    13. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
    14. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2011. "Forecasting stock market returns: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 514-537, June.
    15. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
    16. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Stock return forecasting: Some new evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 38-51.
    17. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
    18. Daniel Mantilla-García & Vijay Vaidyanathan, 2017. "Predicting stock returns in the presence of uncertain structural changes and sample noise," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 357-391, August.
    19. Choi, Yongok & Jacewitz, Stefan & Park, Joon Y., 2016. "A reexamination of stock return predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 168-189.
    20. Londono, Juan M. & Zhou, Hao, 2017. "Variance risk premiums and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 415-440.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:38:y:2018:i:4:p:425-445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.