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Momentum in International Commodity Futures Markets

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  • Jangkoo Kang
  • Kyung Yoon Kwon

Abstract

This paper examines whether commodity futures momentum can predict business cycles in the US, China, UK, Japan, and India. Momentum as a risk factor may play a role as a state variable in the spirit of Liew and Vassalou ( ). We find significant and negative predictability of commodity futures momentum, although the basis factor of the commodity futures markets shows insignificant results. Moreover, we find that commodity futures momentum is an independent factor that cannot be fully explained by traditional risk factors, macroeconomic variables, or commodity sector momentum. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:803–835, 2017

Suggested Citation

  • Jangkoo Kang & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2017. "Momentum in International Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(8), pages 803-835, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:8:p:803-835
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    Cited by:

    1. Jangkoo Kang & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2021. "Volatility‐managed commodity futures portfolios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 159-178, February.
    2. Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "The Fortune and crash of common risk factors in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Jangkoo Kang & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2020. "Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1825-1860, December.
    4. Ying Jiang & Neil Kellard & Xiaoquan Liu, 2020. "Night trading and market quality: Evidence from Chinese and US precious metal futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1486-1507, October.
    5. Jangkoo Kang & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2019. "How about selling commodity futures losers?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1489-1514, December.
    6. Kwon, Kyung Yoon & Kang, Jangkoo & Yun, Jaesun, 2020. "Weekly momentum in the commodity futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    7. Meng Han, 2023. "Commodity momentum and reversal: Do they exist, and if so, why?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(9), pages 1204-1237, September.
    8. Fan, John Hua & Qiao, Xiao, 2023. "Commodity momentum: A tale of countries and sectors," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    9. Yuan, Xianghui & Li, Xiang, 2022. "Delta-hedging demand and intraday momentum: Evidence from China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 600(C).
    10. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia & Sivagandhi Saravanan & Preeti Jain & Avtar Singh & Jinesh jain, 2021. "Mapping the scientific research on alternative momentum investing: a bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 619-636, April.
    11. Yasuhiro Iwanaga & Ryuta Sakemoto, 2023. "Commodity momentum decomposition," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 198-216, February.
    12. Xue Jiang & Liyan Han & Yang Xu, 2021. "How does skewness perform in the Chinese commodity futures market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1268-1285, August.
    13. Kwon, Kyung Yoon & Kang, Jangkoo & Yun, Jaesun, 2021. "Basis-momentum strategies and ranking periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    14. Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2021. "Managing volatility in commodity momentum," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 758-782, May.
    15. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Zhang, Tingxi, 2021. "Investable commodity premia in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Sun Young Kim & Kyung Yoon Kwon, 2021. "Does economic uncertainty matter in international commodity futures markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 849-869, January.
    17. Liu, Zhenya & Lu, Shanglin & Li, Bo & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Time series momentum and reversal: Intraday information from realized semivariance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 54-77.
    18. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    19. Hyuna Ham & Hoon Cho & Hyeongjun Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "Time‐series momentum in China's commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(12), pages 1515-1528, December.

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