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Price Discovery on the International Soybean Futures Markets: A Threshold Co‐Integration Approach

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  • Chao Li
  • Dermot J. Hayes

Abstract

This paper investigates the lead‐lag relationships among soybean prices in United States, Brazilian, and Chinese futures markets. We focus on both long‐run price co‐movements and on short‐run price relationships. Various co‐integration methodologies and causality tests are applied to examine the changes in price relationships over time. The empirical results indicate the following: (a) the soybean futures market in the U.S. is still the most important and influential market, and the U.S. price, in the long‐term, leads price changes in Brazil and China; (b) in the short‐term, the overnight return of U.S. soybean futures and the daytime return of Chinese No. 1 soybean futures contemporaneously affect each other, but there is no significant causality between U.S. overnight return and the daytime return of Chinese No. 2 soybean futures; and, (c) a weak temporal seasonal causality between U.S. and Brazilian soybean futures price exists and more often than not Brazilian futures lead U.S. futures during the Brazilian growing season. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:52–70, 2017

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Li & Dermot J. Hayes, 2017. "Price Discovery on the International Soybean Futures Markets: A Threshold Co‐Integration Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 52-70, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:1:p:52-70
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    Cited by:

    1. Sisi Qin & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "Cross‐border and cross‐commodity volatility spillover effects of Chinese soybean futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1836-1852, December.
    2. McKenzie, Andrew M. & Ke, Yangmin, 2022. "How do USDA announcements affect international commodity prices?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Li, Jianping & Li, Guowen & Liu, Mingxi & Zhu, Xiaoqian & Wei, Lu, 2022. "A novel text-based framework for forecasting agricultural futures using massive online news headlines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-50.
    4. Yang, Yurun & Göncü, Ahmet & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2018. "Momentum and reversal strategies in Chinese commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 177-196.
    5. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    6. Liu, Zhenya & Lu, Shanglin & Wang, Shixuan, 2021. "Asymmetry, tail risk and time series momentum," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Brooks, Robert & Brooks, Joshua A., 2022. "Samuelson hypothesis and carry arbitrage: U.S. and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Yang, Yao & Karali, Berna, 2022. "How far is too far for volatility transmission?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    9. Felipe G. Avileis & Mindy L. Mallory, 2022. "The impact of Brazil on global grain dynamics: A study on cross‐market volatility spillovers," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 231-245, March.
    10. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2020. "Return and volatility transmission between China's and international crude oil futures markets: A first look," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 860-884, June.

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