IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v35y2015i8p776-793.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk Premium in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the PJM Market

Author

Listed:
  • Yuewen Xiao
  • David B. Colwell
  • Ramaprasad Bhar

Abstract

In this article, we construct a stochastic model for electricity spot prices, derive a pricing formula for electricity forward contracts, and specify risk premia inherent in such contracts. Our spot price model accounts for seasonality, mean‐reversion, and time‐varying jump intensity. Empirically, the model with a sinusoidal seasonal function, different mean‐reversion rates for the diffusion and jumps, and constant volatility is most appropriate among six different models for the United States market. The modeling approach leads us to investigate the stochastic risk premium due to both the diffusion and the jump components explicitly. The empirical results reveal that both risk premia are time‐varying and state‐dependent. The diffusion risk premium is negatively correlated with the diffusion level and fluctuates about zero, and the jump risk premium is negatively correlated with the jump level and always negative. In magnitude, the jump risk premium is much larger than the diffusion risk premium. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:776–793, 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Yuewen Xiao & David B. Colwell & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2015. "Risk Premium in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the PJM Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 776-793, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:8:p:776-793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Koten, Silvester, 2021. "The forward premium in electricity markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. David Esteban Rodriguez & Alfredo Trespalacios & David Galeano, 2021. "Risk Transfer in an Electricity Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-12, October.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2020. "The predictive power of convenience yields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Fernandez, Viviana, 2017. "A historical perspective of the informational content of commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 135-150.
    6. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    8. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:8:p:776-793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.