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Risk Premium in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the PJM Market

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  • Yuewen Xiao
  • David B. Colwell
  • Ramaprasad Bhar

Abstract

In this article, we construct a stochastic model for electricity spot prices, derive a pricing formula for electricity forward contracts, and specify risk premia inherent in such contracts. Our spot price model accounts for seasonality, mean‐reversion, and time‐varying jump intensity. Empirically, the model with a sinusoidal seasonal function, different mean‐reversion rates for the diffusion and jumps, and constant volatility is most appropriate among six different models for the United States market. The modeling approach leads us to investigate the stochastic risk premium due to both the diffusion and the jump components explicitly. The empirical results reveal that both risk premia are time‐varying and state‐dependent. The diffusion risk premium is negatively correlated with the diffusion level and fluctuates about zero, and the jump risk premium is negatively correlated with the jump level and always negative. In magnitude, the jump risk premium is much larger than the diffusion risk premium. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:776–793, 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Yuewen Xiao & David B. Colwell & Ramaprasad Bhar, 2015. "Risk Premium in Electricity Prices: Evidence from the PJM Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 776-793, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:35:y:2015:i:8:p:776-793
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    Cited by:

    1. van Koten, Silvester, 2021. "The forward premium in electricity markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    2. Koten, Silvester Van, 2020. "Forward premia in electricity markets: A replication study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. David Esteban Rodriguez & Alfredo Trespalacios & David Galeano, 2021. "Risk Transfer in an Electricity Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-12, October.
    4. Fernandez, Viviana, 2020. "The predictive power of convenience yields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Fernandez, Viviana, 2017. "A historical perspective of the informational content of commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 135-150.
    6. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    8. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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