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The Return‐Implied Volatility Relation for Commodity ETFs

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  • Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi
  • Robert T. Daigler

Abstract

We examine the return‐implied volatility relation by employing “commodity” option VIXs for the euro, gold, and oil. This relation is substantially weaker than for stock indexes. We propose several potential reasons for these unusually weak results. Also, gold possesses an unusual positive contemporaneous return coefficient, which is consistent with a demand volatility skew rather than the typical investment skew. Moreover, the euro and gold are not asymmetric. We relate the results to trading strategies, algorithmic trading, and behavioral theories. An important conclusion of the study is that important differences exist regarding implied volatility for certain types of assets that have not yet been explained in the literature; namely, the results in this study concerning commodity ETFs versus stock indexes, plus previous research on stock indexes versus individual stocks, and the pricing of stock index options versus individual stock options. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:261–281, 2014

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  • Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Robert T. Daigler, 2014. "The Return‐Implied Volatility Relation for Commodity ETFs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 261-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:34:y:2014:i:3:p:261-281
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    5. Baruník, Jozef & Hlínková, Michaela, 2016. "Revisiting the long memory dynamics of the implied–realized volatility relationship: New evidence from the wavelet regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 503-514.
    6. Parhizgari, A.M. & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2021. "Global equity market leadership positions through implied volatility measures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 180-205.
    7. Liu, Zhichao & Ma, Feng & Long, Yujia, 2015. "High and low or close to close prices? Evidence from the multifractal volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 50-61.
    8. Cheuathonghua, Massaporn & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2024. "The volume-implied volatility relation in financial markets: A behavioral explanation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    10. Prasenjit Chakrabarti & K. Kiran Kumar, 2017. "Does behavioural theory explain return-implied volatility relationship? Evidence from India," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1355521-135, January.
    11. Fousekis, Panos, 2020. "Sign and size asymmetry in the stock returns-implied volatility relationship," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
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    13. Hassan, M. Kabir & Kayhana, Selim & Bayatb, Tayfur, 2016. "The Relation between Return and Volatility in ETFs Traded in Borsa Istanbul: Is there any Difference between Islamic and Conventional ETFs?," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 24, pages 45-76.
    14. López, Raquel, 2018. "The behaviour of energy-related volatility indices around scheduled news announcements: Implications for variance swap investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 356-364.
    15. Elroi Hadad & Davinder Malhotra & Srinivas Nippani, 2024. "Trading commodity ETFs: Price behavior, investment insights, and performance analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1257-1276, July.
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