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S&P 500 Index‐Futures Price Jumps and Macroeconomic News

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  • Hong Miao
  • Sanjay Ramchander
  • J. Kenton Zumwalt

Abstract

This study examines the influence of macroeconomic news on price discontinuities in the S&P 500 index futures. Results document a strong association between macro news and price jumps. Over three‐fourths of the price jumps between 8:30 am and 8:35 am and over three‐fifths of the jumps between 10:00 am and 10:05 am are related to news released at 8:30 am and 10:30 am, respectively. Notably, among several types of news releases considered, Non‐farm Payroll and Consumer Confidence are found to be significantly related to price jumps. Our findings also provide insights into the speed of news absorption and the influence of alternative trading platforms on the jump return behavior. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:980–1001, 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2014. "S&P 500 Index‐Futures Price Jumps and Macroeconomic News," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(10), pages 980-1001, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:34:y:2014:i:10:p:980-1001
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    1. Ma, Feng & Wang, Ruoxin & Lu, Xinjie & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "A comprehensive look at stock return predictability by oil prices using economic constraint approaches," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Megaritis, Anastasios & Vlastakis, Nikolaos & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021. "Stock market volatility and jumps in times of uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021. "Volatility forecasting in European government bond markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1691-1709.
    4. Liu, Wenwen & Zhang, Chang & Qiao, Gaoxiu & Xu, Lei, 2022. "Impact of network investor sentiment and news arrival on jumps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Lv, Wendai & Qi, Jipeng, 2022. "Stock market return predictability: A combination forecast perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Liu, Jia & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention and stock market return predictability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Liu, Guofang & Fang, Xi & Huang, Yuan & Zhao, Weidong, 2021. "Identifying the role of consumer and producer price index announcements in stock index futures price changes," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 87-101.
    8. Smales, L.A., 2017. "Commodity market volatility in the presence of U.S. and Chinese macroeconomic news," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 15-27.
    9. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Dionisio, Andreia & Pradhan, H.K. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2021. "Hunting the quicksilver: Using textual news and causality analysis to predict market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Zhou, Chunyang & Wu, Chongfeng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio allocation with time-varying jump risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 113-124.
    11. Srivastava, Pranjal & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Arbitrage constraints and behaviour of volatility components: Evidence from a natural experiment," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-10-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Li, Zhao-Chen & Xie, Chi & Zeng, Zhi-Jian & Wang, Gang-Jin & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    13. Kam Fong Chan & Philip Gray, 2017. "Do Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements Influence Energy Price Jumps?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 71-89, January.
    14. Ahn, Yongkil & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2021. "What factors are associated with stock price jumps in high frequency?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Zeng, Qing & Lu, Xinjie & Dong, Dayong & Li, Pan, 2022. "Category-specific EPU indices, macroeconomic variables and stock market return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W. & Mahapatra, Biplab, 2024. "Impact of media hype and fake news on commodity futures prices: A deep learning approach over the COVID-19 period," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

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