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The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility

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  • Sami Vähämaa
  • Janne Äijö

Abstract

This study examines how the Fed's monetary policy decisions affect the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index. The results show that stock market uncertainty is significantly affected by the Fed's policy decisions. In particular, we find that implied volatility generally decreases after FOMC meetings, while the relationship between target rate surprises and market uncertainty appears positive. However, our results also suggest that the apparent positive relationship between policy surprises and implied volatility is mostly driven by the volatility‐reducing effects of negative surprises. We further document that implied volatility is affected by both scheduled and unscheduled policy actions, with the scheduled path surprises having the strongest impact on volatility. Finally, our findings indicate that the impact of monetary policy decisions on implied volatility is more pronounced during periods of expansive policy. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark

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  • Sami Vähämaa & Janne Äijö, 2011. "The Fed's policy decisions and implied volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(10), pages 995-1010, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:10:p:995-1010
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    2. López, Raquel, 2015. "Do stylized facts of equity-based volatility indices apply to fixed-income volatility indices? Evidence from the US Treasury market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 292-303.
    3. Chiang, Shu Ling & Tsai, Ming Shann, 2023. "Analyses for the effects of investor sentiment on the price adjustment behaviors for stock market and REIT market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 425-439.
    4. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US Fed rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," MPRA Paper 69976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Huang, Yingbo, 2018. "The role of investor sentiment in the long-term correlation between U.S. stock and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 127-139.
    7. Krieger, Kevin & Mauck, Nathan & Vazquez, Joseph, 2015. "Comparing U.S. and European market volatility responses to interest rate policy announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 127-136.
    8. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Raquel López, 2023. "The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1499-1530, November.
    9. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Evolving United States stock market volatility: The role of conventional and unconventional monetary policies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "Did the global financial crisis alter equilibrium adjustment dynamics between the US federal fund fund rates and stock price volatility in the SSA region?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 778-788.

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