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Persistent mispricing in a recently opened emerging index futures market: Arbitrageurs invited

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  • David G. McMillan
  • Numan Ülkü

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the persistent, typically negative, mispricing in the new stock index futures market in Turkey, which has amounted to 5–8%, several multiples of transaction costs. The observations suggest that it is the outcome of a combination of practical difficulties of shorting in the spot stock market, behavioral effects, and insufficient arbitrage. The magnitude of the mispricing and the absence of arbitrage make behavioral effects more visible and provide a unique opportunity to examine extant behavioral hypotheses. Results confirm effects such as disposition and/or conservatism with the mispricing negatively related to past returns, but unrelated to future returns. Finally, an orderly weakening of the negative relation to past returns and behavioral effects is observed, suggesting that such effects will diminish as the market matures. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:218–243, 2009

Suggested Citation

  • David G. McMillan & Numan Ülkü, 2009. "Persistent mispricing in a recently opened emerging index futures market: Arbitrageurs invited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 218-243, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:29:y:2009:i:3:p:218-243
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    Cited by:

    1. Sila Alan, Nazli & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K. & Korkmaz, Sibel, 2016. "Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
    2. Isabel Figuerola‐Ferretti & Ioannis Paraskevopoulos & Tao Tang, 2018. "Pairs‐trading and spread persistence in the European stock market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(9), pages 998-1023, September.
    3. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jan Koeman, 2017. "Does the Design of Spot Markets Matter for the Success of Futures Markets? Evidence from Dairy Futures," Working Papers in Economics 17/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    5. Jędrzej Białkowski & Jan Koeman, 2018. "Does the design of spot markets matter for the success of futures markets? Evidence from dairy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 373-389, March.
    6. Ryu, Doojin & Ryu, Doowon & Yang, Heejin, 2023. "Investor sentiment and futures market mispricing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    7. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.

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