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The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS

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  • Nivine Richie
  • Robert T. Daigler
  • Kimberly C. Gleason

Abstract

This study examines factors affecting stock index spot versus futures pricing and arbitrage opportunities by using the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P 500 Standard and Poor's Depository Receipt (SPDR) Exchange‐Traded Fund (ETF) as “underlying cash assets.” Potential limits to arbitrage when using the cash index are the staleness of the underlying cash index, trading costs, liquidity (volume) issues of the underlying assets, the existence of sufficient time to execute profitable arbitrage transactions, short sale restrictions, and the extent to which volatility affects mispricing. Alternatively, using the SPDR ETF as the underlying asset mitigates staleness and trading cost problems as well as the effects of volatility associated with the staleness of the cash index. Minute‐by‐minute prices are compared over different volatility levels to determine how these factors affect the limits of S&P 500 futures arbitrage. Employing the SPDR as the cash asset examines whether a liquid tradable single asset with low trading costs can be used for pricing and arbitrage purposes. The analysis examines how long mispricing lasts, the impact of volatility on mispricing, and whether sufficient volume exists to implement arbitrage. The minute‐by‐minute liquidity of the futures market is examined using a new transaction volume futures database. The results show that mispricings exist regardless of the choice of the underlying cash asset, with more negative mispricings for the SPDR relative to the S&P 500 cash index. Furthermore, mispricings are more frequent in high‐ and mid‐volatility months than in low‐volatility months and are associated with higher volume during high‐volatility months. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1182–1205, 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Nivine Richie & Robert T. Daigler & Kimberly C. Gleason, 2008. "The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1182-1205, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:28:y:2008:i:12:p:1182-1205
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Liao & Xu, Lu & Zhao, Jing & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "Information-based trading and information propagation: Evidence from the exchange traded fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Lepone, Andrew & Wen, Jun & Yang, Jin Young, 2018. "Message traffic restrictions and relative pricing efficiency: Evidence from index futures contracts and exchange-traded funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 366-375.
    3. Xu, Liao & Yin, Xiangkang, 2017. "Does ETF trading affect the efficiency of the underlying index?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 82-101.
    4. Gemayel, Roland & Franus, Tatiana & Bowden, James, 2023. "Price discovery between Bitcoin spot markets and exchange traded products," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Padma Kadiyala, 2022. "Response of ETF flows and long-run returns to investor sentiment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(4), pages 489-531, December.
    6. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    7. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Financially constrained index futures arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1688-1703, September.
    8. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco A. Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2016. "Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-64, Swiss Finance Institute.
    9. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2021. "Bitcoin arbitrage," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    10. Hakan Er & Adnan Hushmat, 2017. "The application of technical trading rules developed from spot market prices on futures market prices using CAPM," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(3), pages 313-353, December.
    11. Nassar S. Al-Nassar, 2024. "The Price Formation of GCC Country iShares: The Role of Unsynchronized Trading Days between the US and the GCC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Bertone, Stephen & Paeglis, Imants & Ravi, Rahul, 2015. "(How) has the market become more efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 72-86.
    13. Xinyun Chen & Yan Liu & Tao Zeng, 2017. "Does the T + 1 rule really reduce speculation? Evidence from Chinese Stock Index ETF," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1287-1313, December.
    14. Broman, Markus S., 2016. "Liquidity, style investing and excess comovement of exchange-traded fund returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 27-53.

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