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The effect of spot and futures trading on stock index market volatility: A nonparametric approach

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  • M. Illueca
  • J. A. Lafuente

Abstract

This article provides empirical evidence on the intraday relation between spot volatility and trading volume in the Spanish stock index futures market. GARCH methodology is used to estimate spot volatility. We analyze the potential relation between spot and futures trading volume and spot volatility by estimating the corresponding conditional density functions as proposed in Quah (1997). Our results reveal no significant link between those variables. Similar findings arise when expected and unexpected volume is considered. Our results suggest that derivative market is not a force behind episodes of significant spot jump volatility. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:841–858, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • M. Illueca & J. A. Lafuente, 2003. "The effect of spot and futures trading on stock index market volatility: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(9), pages 841-858, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:9:p:841-858
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Illueca & J. Lafuente, 2008. "Introducing the mini-futures contract on Ibex 35: implications for price discovery and volatility transmission," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 197-219, September.
    2. Spyros I. Spyrou, 2005. "Index Futures Trading and Spot Price Volatility," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 4(2), pages 151-167, August.
    3. Marco Lau & Yongyang Su & Na Tan & Zhe Zhang, 2014. "Hedging China’s energy oil market risks," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(1), pages 99-112, June.
    4. Mensi, Walid & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Asymmetric spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and currency markets using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Juan A. Lafuente & Manuel Illueca Muñoz, 2003. "The Effect Of Futures Trading Activity On The Distribution Of Spot Market Returns," Working Papers. Serie EC 2003-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    6. M. Illueca & J. A. LaFuente, 2006. "New evidence on expiration‐day effects using realized volatility: An intraday analysis for the Spanish stock exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(9), pages 923-938, September.
    7. Loc Dong Truong & Anh Thi Kim Nguyen & Dut Van Vo, 2021. "Index Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Frontier Markets: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 353-366, September.
    8. George Karathanassis & Vasilios Sogiakas, 2010. "Spill over effects of futures contracts initiation on the cash market: a regime shift approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 95-143, January.
    9. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, C.W. & Hwang, M.J., 2009. "The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: A multivariate threshold regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 91-98, January.
    10. Sogiakas, Vasilios & Karathanassis, George, 2015. "Informational efficiency and spurious spillover effects between spot and derivatives markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 46-72.
    11. Hung, Mao-Wei & So, Leh-Chyan, 2009. "New insights into India’s single stock futures markets," MPRA Paper 52491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    13. Imran Riaz Malik & Attaullah Shah, 2016. "Resumption of Single Stock Futures (SSFs) with Stringent Regulations and their Impact on the Risk Characteristics of the Underlying Stocks," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Gurmeet Singh, 2017. "Estimating Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedging Effectiveness in the NSE Index Futures," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(2), pages 108-131, December.

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