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The interrelation of price volatility and trading volume of currency options

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  • Ghulam Sarwar

Abstract

This article examines the interrelations between future volatility of the U.S. dollar/British pound exchange rate and trading volume of currency options for the British pound. The future volatility of the exchange rate is approximated alternatively by implied volatility and by IGARCH volatility. The results suggest the presence of strong contemporaneous positive feedbacks between the exchange rate volatility and the trading volume of call and put options. Previous option volumes have significant predictive power with respect to the expected future volatility of the dollar/pound exchange rate. Similarly, lagged volatilities jointly have significant predictive power for option volume. Although option volume (volatility) responds somewhat differently to individual volatility (volume) terms under the two volatility measures, the overall volume‐volatility relations are broadly similar between the implied and IGARCH volatilities. The results generally support the hypothesis that the information‐based trading explains more of the trading volume in currency options on the U.S. dollar/British pound exchange rate than hedging. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:681–700, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Ghulam Sarwar, 2003. "The interrelation of price volatility and trading volume of currency options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 681-700, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:7:p:681-700
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    Cited by:

    1. Choe, Kyoungin & Goodwin, Barry K., 2024. "The Informational Role of Trading Volume in Thinly Traded Options Markets," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343732, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Héctor Jasso-Fuentes & Carlos G. Pacheco & Gladys D. Salgado-Suárez, 2023. "A discrete-time optimal execution problem with market prices subject to random environments," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(3), pages 562-583, October.
    3. Haberer, Markus, 2004. "Might a Securities Transactions Tax Mitigate Excess Volatility? Some Evidence From the Literature," CoFE Discussion Papers 04/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    4. Biswal, P.C. & Jain, Anshul, 2019. "Should central banks use the currency futures market to manage spot volatility? Evidence from India," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.

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