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Index futures leadership, basis behavior, and trader selectivity

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  • Arjun Chatrath
  • Rohan Christie‐David
  • Kanwalroop K. Dhanda
  • Timothy W. Koch

Abstract

Employing intraday data for futures and cash values for the S&P 500 over the 1993–1996 period, we attempt to characterize the lead–lag relationship between these two markets and their basis behavior. Our findings show evidence of pronounced futures leadership when markets are rising, with no feedback from the cash market. However, when markets are falling, futures leadership is less evident and significant feedback from the cash market is noted. We also provide evidence of a positive relationship between the basis and return volatility. We offer an explanation, based on trader selectivity, for the leadership‐asymmetry and the basis–volatility relationship. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:649–677, 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Arjun Chatrath & Rohan Christie‐David & Kanwalroop K. Dhanda & Timothy W. Koch, 2002. "Index futures leadership, basis behavior, and trader selectivity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 649-677, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:22:y:2002:i:7:p:649-677
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    Cited by:

    1. Judge, Amrit & Reancharoen, Tipprapa, 2014. "An empirical examination of the lead–lag relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 335-358.
    2. Qiang Liu & Gaoxiu Qiao, 2017. "The evolving nature of intraday price discovery in the Chinese CSI 300 index futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1569-1585, June.
    3. Ma, Zonggang & Ma, Chaoqun & Wu, Zhijian, 2020. "Closed-form analytical solutions for options on agricultural futures with seasonality and stochastic convenience yield," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Shuxin Guo, 2021. "Do futures lead the index under stress? Evidence from the 2015 Chinese market turmoil and its aftermath," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-110, January.
    5. Ren, Fei & Ji, Shen-Dan & Cai, Mei-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2019. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between stock indices and their derivatives: A comparative study between Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 709-723.
    6. Gong, Chen-Chen & Ji, Shen-Dan & Su, Li-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Ren, Fei, 2016. "The lead–lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 63-72.

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