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The pricing of stock index futures spreads at contract expiration

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  • Alex Frino
  • Michael D. McKenzie

Abstract

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the mispricing of calendar spreads for stock index futures. Using recent data drawn from the Sydney Futures Exchange, a sharp increase in the magnitude of spread mispricing immediately prior to maturity of the near contract is documented. This pattern in mispricing is related to a sharp decline in open interest in the near contract and an increase in open interest in the deferred contract. Further, the direction of mispricing of the near and deferred contracts are more likely to move in opposite directions as the near contract approaches maturity. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that traders seeking to roll‐over their positions from near to deferred futures contracts close to maturity increase the magnitude of spread mispricing. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:451–469, 2002

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Frino & Michael D. McKenzie, 2002. "The pricing of stock index futures spreads at contract expiration," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 451-469, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:22:y:2002:i:5:p:451-469
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    Cited by:

    1. Lepone, Andrew & Yang, Jin Young, 2013. "Informational role of market makers: The case of exchange traded CFDs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 84-92.
    2. Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
    3. Alex Frino & Luca Galati & Dionigi Gerace, 2022. "Reporting delays and the information content of off‐market trades," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(11), pages 2053-2067, November.
    4. Kiril Alampieski & Andrew Lepone, 2009. "Impact of a tick size reduction on liquidity: evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(1), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2006. "Calculating the optimal hedge ratio: constant, time varying and the Kalman Filter approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 293-299.
    6. Kun Peng & Zhepeng Hu & Michel A. Robe, 2024. "Maximum order size and market quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(5), pages 803-825, May.
    7. Alex Frino & Ognjen Kovacevic & Vito Mollica & Robert I. Webb, 2022. "Connectivity costs and price efficiency: An event study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 296-309, February.
    8. Ai Jun Hou & Lars L. Nordén, 2018. "VIX futures calendar spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 822-838, July.
    9. Alex Frino & Ognjen Kovačević & Vito Mollica, 2019. "Depths and spreads in futures markets: Relationship with order execution, submission, and cancellation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 590-599, May.
    10. Frino, Alex & Ibikunle, Gbenga & Mollica, Vito & Steffen, Tom, 2018. "The impact of commodity benchmarks on derivatives markets: The case of the dated Brent assessment and Brent futures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 27-43.

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