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Volume and Volatility Surrounding Quarterly Redesignation of the Lead S&P 500 Futures Contract

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  • Ira G. Kawaller
  • Paul D. Koch
  • John E. Peterson

Abstract

During the last weeks before each quarterly expiration of Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 futures, the bulk of trading volume begins to shift away from the next‐to‐expire (nearby or lead) contract toward the second‐to‐expire (next out) contract. At some point, the exchange formally redesignates the next out as the new lead contract, and the next out replaces the nearby in the futures pit location designated for the lead contract. This event invariably results in a dramatic increase (decrease) in trading activity in the next out (nearby) contract. This shift in relative trading volumes is due to the microstructure of the futures exchange rather than new information or underlying volatility conditions. The event thus offers us an opportunity to examine how volatility responds to noninformation‐based exogenous changes in volume. This study examines the volatility behavior of nearby and next out S&P 500 futures contracts on the 10 days surrounding quarterly redesignation of the lead contract. Our model measures possible changes in (a) the level of volatility and/or (b) the association between volume and volatility after redesignation of the lead contract. Results indicate that when we account for the association between volume and volatility, the higher volume lead contract consistently experiences a lower level of volatility. This outcome supports the view that the larger population of liquidity providers who trade the more active lead contract fosters greater market depth and lower volatility. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1119–1149, 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Ira G. Kawaller & Paul D. Koch & John E. Peterson, 2001. "Volume and Volatility Surrounding Quarterly Redesignation of the Lead S&P 500 Futures Contract," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(12), pages 1119-1149, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:21:y:2001:i:12:p:1119-1149
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    Cited by:

    1. Igor Kliakhandler, 2007. "Execution edge of pit traders and intraday price ranges of soft commodities," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 343-350.
    2. S. Bhaumik & M. Karanasos & A. Kartsaklas, 2008. "Derivatives Trading and the Volume-Volatility Link in the Indian Stock Market," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp935, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti & Aris Kartsaklas, 2021. "Investors' trading behaviour and stock market volatility during crisis periods: A dual long‐memory model for the Korean Stock Exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4441-4461, July.
    4. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    5. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.

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