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Pricing American options with stochastic volatility: Evidence from S&P 500 futures options

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  • Lim Kian Guan
  • Guo Xiaoqiang

Abstract

This article is the first attempt to test empirically a numerical solution to price American options under stochastic volatility. The model allows for a mean‐reverting stochastic‐volatility process with non‐zero risk premium for the volatility risk and correlation with the underlying process. A general solution of risk‐neutral probabilities and price movements is derived, which avoids the common negative‐probability problem in numerical‐option pricing with stochastic volatility. The empirical test shows clear evidence supporting the occurrence of stochastic volatility. The stochastic‐volatility model outperforms the constant‐volatility model by producing smaller bias and better goodness of fit in both the in‐sample and out‐of‐sample test. It not only eliminates systematic moneyness bias produced by the constant‐volatility model, but also has better prediction power. In addition, both models perform well in the dynamic intraday hedging test. However, the constant‐volatility model seems to have a slightly better hedging effectiveness. The profitability test shows that the stochastic volatility is able to capture statistically significant profits while the constant volatility model produces losses. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:625–659, 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Lim Kian Guan & Guo Xiaoqiang, 2000. "Pricing American options with stochastic volatility: Evidence from S&P 500 futures options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 625-659, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:20:y:2000:i:7:p:625-659
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Russo & Alessandro Staino, 2018. "A Lattice-Based Model For Evaluating Bonds And Interest-Sensitive Claims Under Stochastic Volatility," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Chou-Wen Wang & Ting-Yi Wu, 2007. "An Alternative Formulation for the Pricing of Stock Index Futures: Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134, August.
    3. Maya Briani & Lucia Caramellino & Antonino Zanette, 2017. "A hybrid approach for the implementation of the Heston model," Post-Print hal-00916440, HAL.

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