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Mispricing of index futures contracts and short sales constraints

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  • Joseph K. W. Fung
  • Paul Draper

Abstract

This article examines if changes in short sales constraints affect the extent to which index futures contracts are mispriced. In particular, the study analyzes the mispricing of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures contracts. Tests are conducted over three distinct regulatory regimes relating to the short selling of stocks in Hong Kong. This permits a study of how changes in short selling regulations affect the mispricing of futures contracts. The study indicates that relaxing the constraints on short selling reduces the extent of futures mispricing. Multiple regression analysis is used to test the relationship between the magnitude of mispricing and various economic factors including cash market volatility, time‐to‐maturity of the contract, trading cost, and dividend payout rates. The study also finds that lifting of the short selling restrictions speeds up market adjustment, especially when a long‐hedge (long futures, short stock) signal is detected. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 695–715, 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph K. W. Fung & Paul Draper, 1999. "Mispricing of index futures contracts and short sales constraints," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 695-715, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:19:y:1999:i:6:p:695-715
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    Cited by:

    1. Jieye Qin & Christopher J. Green & Kavita Sirichand, 2019. "Determinants of Nikkei futures mispricing in international markets: Dividend clustering, currency risk, and transaction costs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1269-1300, October.
    2. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Effect of futures trading on the liquidity of underlying stocks: Evidence from Vietnam," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Janchung Wang, 2009. "Stock market volatility and the forecasting performance of stock index futures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 277-292.
    4. Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter & Sergio Pulido, 2015. "The Effect Of Trading Futures On Short Sale Constraints," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 311-338, April.
    5. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2024. "Role of derivatives market in attenuating underreaction to left‐tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 484-517, March.
    6. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    7. Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Short Selling With Margin Risk And Recall Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02), pages 1-33, March.
    9. R. Jared DeLisle & Bong Soo Lee & Nathan Mauck, 2016. "The dynamic relation between options trading, short selling, and aggregate stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 645-671, October.
    10. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2021. "Forty years of the Journal of Futures Markets: A bibliometric overview," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1027-1054, July.
    11. Bai, Min & Qin, Yafeng, 2015. "Short sales constraints and price adjustments to earnings announcements: Evidence from the Hong Kong market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 304-315.
    12. Jimmy E. Hilliard & Haoran Zhang, 2020. "The impact of soft intervention on the Chinese financial futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 374-391, March.
    13. Chris Bilson & Tim Brailsford & Twm Evans, 2005. "The International Transmission of Arbitrage Information Across Futures Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5‐6), pages 973-1000, June.
    14. Bai, Min & Li, Xiao-Ming & Qin, Yafeng, 2017. "Shortability and asset pricing model: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 15-29.
    15. Bouchra Benzennou & Owain ap Gwilym & Gwion Williams, 2018. "Are single stock futures used as an alternative during a short‐selling ban?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 66-82, January.
    16. McMillan, David G. & Philip, Dennis, 2012. "Short-sale constraints and efficiency of the spot–futures dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 129-136.
    17. Tu, Anthony H. & Hsieh, Wen-Liang G. & Wu, Wei-Shao, 2016. "Market uncertainty, expected volatility and the mispricing of S&P 500 index futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 78-98.
    18. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2022. "Financially constrained index futures arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1688-1703, September.
    19. Fang, Ming & Chang, Chiu-Lan & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Impacts of trading restrictions on price volatilities and speculative activities: Evidence from CSI 300 futures," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-204.

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