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Modeling nonlinear dynamics of daily futures price changes

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  • Andre H. Gao
  • George H. K. Wang

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to characterize linear and nonlinear serial dependence in daily futures price changes. The daily prices of four futures are included in this study: (i) S&P 500; (ii) Japanese yen; (iii) Deutsche mark; and (iv) Eurodollar. Our major empirical findings are: (i) Based on the results of nonlinearity tests (that is, the BDS, the Q-super-2, and the TAR‐F tests), we found all futures price changes contain nonlinearity in the series; (ii) a GARCH model can explain the source of nonlinearity for three out of four series; (iii) a threshold autoregressive model and autoregressive volatility model can adequately represent nonlinear dynamics of S&P 500 series; and (iv) deterministic chaos is not evident in the scaled residuals from the nonlinear time series models. Hence we favor a statistical time series approach to represent the data‐generating mechanism of futures price changes. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 325–351, 1999

Suggested Citation

  • Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 1999. "Modeling nonlinear dynamics of daily futures price changes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 325-351, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:19:y:1999:i:3:p:325-351
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    Cited by:

    1. Robles-Fernandez M. Dolores & Nieto Luisa & Fernandez M. Angeles, 2004. "Nonlinear Intraday Dynamics in Eurostoxx50 Index Markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Qiao, Zhuo & Li, Yuming & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-289, July.
    3. Marisa Faggini & Bruna Bruno & Anna Parziale, 2019. "Does Chaos Matter in Financial Time Series Analysis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 18-24.
    4. Alemany, Nuria & Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2020. "Lead-lag relationship between spot and futures stock indexes: Intraday data and regime-switching models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 269-280.
    5. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376, March.

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