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Predicting opening spot prices using extended futures trading

Author

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  • Janchung Wang
  • Sunwu Winfred Chen
  • Bo‐Ting Wang

Abstract

Previous studies found that extended futures trading contains useful information in explaining subsequent overnight spot returns. This study therefore compares the performance of using the extended trading of the TAIFEX (Taiwan Futures Exchange) index futures and single‐stock futures to predict their opening underlying spot prices. Furthermore, according to the efficient market hypothesis, the share price fully reflects all the information available and should adjust to new information instantaneously. However, several studies have demonstrated that short‐sales restrictions delay the speed of price adjustment to negative information. The relevant question is whether short‐selling restrictions also slow down the speed at which the opening spot price adjusts to the new information revealed through extended futures trading, and thus reducing the price prediction function of extended futures trading. The empirical results find that using the opening futures price and the prediction method proposed in this study can more accurately predict the opening spot price on the same day. Furthermore, the performance of using the extended trading of index futures to predict the opening spot index price is superior to that of using the extended trading of single‐stock futures to predict the opening stock price. Finally, as found in previous studies, short‐selling restrictions also slow down the speed of stock price adjustment to the new information revealed through extended futures trading. Thus both the up‐tick rule and the short‐selling bans (especially the latter) negatively affect the price forecasting performance of extended futures trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Janchung Wang & Sunwu Winfred Chen & Bo‐Ting Wang, 2019. "Predicting opening spot prices using extended futures trading," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 155-174, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:3:p:155-174
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2554
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Wang, Janchung & Yeh, Shih-Kuo & Wang, Bo-Ting, 2020. "The effect of short-sale restrictions on the information transmission of extended index futures trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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