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Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

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  • Malgorzata Seklecka
  • Norazliani Md. Lazam
  • Athanasios A. Pantelous
  • Colin O'Hare

Abstract

Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Malgorzata Seklecka & Norazliani Md. Lazam & Athanasios A. Pantelous & Colin O'Hare, 2019. "Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 39-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:1:p:39-62
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2550
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppina Bozzo & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2021. "Longevity risk and economic growth in sub-populations: evidence from Italy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 101-115, June.
    2. Arık, Ayşe & Uğur, Ömür & Kleinow, Torsten, 2023. "The impact of simultaneous shocks to financial markets and mortality on pension buy-out prices," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 392-417, May.
    3. Wang, Pengjie & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vahid, Farshid, 2023. "Multi-population mortality projection: The augmented common factor model with structural breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 450-469.

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