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Projected spending on pensions in Spain: A viability analysis

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  • Juan F. Del Brío Carretero
  • Ma De La Concepción González Rabanal

Abstract

The viability of pay‐as‐you‐go retirement pension schemes, such as that of Spain, remains a subject of ongoing debate. In this article we shall attempt to demonstrate that demography is the key variable that determines a system's viability. Analysis of several predictive studies conducted in the country shows that many of their predictions have been erroneous and their findings overpessimistic. This is because their forecasts were based on projections for the resident population, and overlooked the magnitude of the recent phenomenon of immigration. If the current influx of migrants continues, the problem of viability can be resolved.

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  • Juan F. Del Brío Carretero & Ma De La Concepción González Rabanal, 2004. "Projected spending on pensions in Spain: A viability analysis," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 91-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:intssr:v:57:y:2004:i:3:p:91-109
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-246X.2004.00196.x
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