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The optimal hedge strategy of crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from a novel method

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  • Lu‐Tao Zhao
  • Ya Meng
  • Yue‐Jun Zhang
  • Yun‐Tao Li

Abstract

Hedging is an important measure for investors to resist extreme risks and improve their profits. This paper develops a FIGARCH–EVT–copula–VaR model to derive hedge ratio when hedging crude oil spot and futures markets, overcoming the limitations of static models and simple dynamic models in existing literature. The empirical results indicate that the FIGARCH–EVT–copula–VaR model is superior to the other three commonly used models based on four criteria: mean of returns, variance of returns, ratio of mean to variance of returns, and hedging effectiveness. Comparatively, the new model has superior performance to other three models during the sample period and can be used by investors to obtain excellent hedging effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu‐Tao Zhao & Ya Meng & Yue‐Jun Zhang & Yun‐Tao Li, 2019. "The optimal hedge strategy of crude oil spot and futures markets: Evidence from a novel method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 186-203, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:24:y:2019:i:1:p:186-203
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1656
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Fan & Tian, Lixin & Du, Ruijin & Dong, Gaogao, 2021. "Universal law in the crude oil market based on visibility graph algorithm and network structure," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Lu, Junli & Shen, Xilin, 2023. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Umar, Zaghum & Usman, Muhammad & Choi, Sun-Yong & Rice, John, 2023. "Diversification benefits of NFTs for conventional asset investors: Evidence from CoVaR with higher moments and optimal hedge ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Markus Arlindo Monteiro & Bennie Grové & Nicolette Matthews, 2022. "Developing a Moving Average Crossover Strategy as an Alternative Hedging Strategy for the South Africa Maize Market," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Gong, Xue & Zhang, Nan, 2022. "Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using factors-driven realized volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Hemei Li & Zhenya Liu & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Vines climbing higher: Risk management for commodity futures markets using a regular vine copula approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2438-2457, April.
    7. Shi, Xunpeng & Shen, Yifan, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and natural gas prices: Revisiting the Asian Premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Yue‐Jun Zhang & Shu‐Jiao Ma, 2021. "Exploring the dynamic price discovery, risk transfer and spillover among INE, WTI and Brent crude oil futures markets: Evidence from the high‐frequency data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2414-2435, April.

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