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The role of time‐varying return forecasts for improving international diversification benefits

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  • Maria del Mar Miralles‐Quiros
  • Jose Luis Miralles‐Quiros

Abstract

The aim of this study is to provide empirical evidence of the international diversification benefits obtained employing not only time‐varying volatility forecasts but also time‐varying return forecasts from a multivariate approach that considers the dynamic relationships in return series as well as in volatilities and correlations. To that end, instead of using market indexes from different investment areas, we employ exchange trade funds actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange in recent years. It avoids nonsynchronous problems as well as allowing us to allocate internationally on a daily basis for which this approach is especially appropriate. Our overall results show that using this technique, it is possible to obtain economic gains and outperform the common benchmark strategies, even when the costs associated with the daily rebalance of each portfolio are taken into account.

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  • Maria del Mar Miralles‐Quiros & Jose Luis Miralles‐Quiros, 2017. "The role of time‐varying return forecasts for improving international diversification benefits," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 201-215, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:201-215
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Zhao & Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Filipa Da Silva Fernandes, 2019. "Revisiting Fama–French factors' predictability with Bayesian modelling and copula‐based portfolio optimization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1443-1463, October.
    2. José Luis Miralles‐Quirós & María Mar Miralles‐Quirós & José Manuel Nogueira, 2019. "Diversification benefits of using exchange‐traded funds in compliance to the sustainable development goals," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 244-255, January.
    3. Qifa Xu & Junqing Zuo & Cuixia Jiang & Yaoyao He, 2021. "A large constrained time‐varying portfolio selection model with DCC‐MIDAS: Evidence from Chinese stock market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3417-3435, July.
    4. Miralles-Quirós, José Luis & Miralles-Quirós, María Mar, 2019. "Are alternative energies a real alternative for investors?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 535-545.
    5. Zainudin, Ahmad Danial & Mohamad, Azhar, 2021. "Financial contagion in the futures markets amidst global geo-economic events," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 288-308.

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