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The International Effects of US Uncertainty

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  • Paul M. Jones
  • Eric Olson

Abstract

We propose domestic uncertainty shocks may serve as a channel through which business cycles are transmitted internationally. To quantify uncertainty, we use two measures from the current literature and estimate vector autoregressions to evaluate the effects US uncertainty shocks have on the Japanese and British economies. Our results suggest that US uncertainty shocks have international effects consistent with a demand shock in the context of an open‐economy aggregate demand and aggregate supply model with sticky prices. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul M. Jones & Eric Olson, 2015. "The International Effects of US Uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 242-252, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:20:y:2015:i:3:p:242-252
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    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & van Eyden, Reneé, 2017. "The impact of US policy uncertainty on the monetary effectiveness in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1052-1064.
    2. Boqiang Lin & Tong Su, 2023. "Uncertainties and green bond markets: Evidence from tail dependence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4458-4475, October.
    3. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Forecasting equity premium in a panel of OECD countries: The role of economic policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 243-248.
    4. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2022. "The financial US uncertainty spillover multiplier: Evidence from a GVAR model," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 313-340, December.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of US Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201620, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Christou, Christina & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Time-Varying impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic variables of the united kingdom: Evidence from over 150 years of monthly data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    7. Houari, Oussama, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and business cycles in the US: New insights from the last three decades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
    9. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    10. Cheng, Chak Hung Jack, 2017. "Effects of foreign and domestic economic policy uncertainty shocks on South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    12. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Papakyriakou, Panayiotis & Sakkas, Athanasios & Taoushianis, Zenon, 2019. "The impact of terrorist attacks in G7 countries on international stock markets and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 143-160.
    14. Choi, Sangyup, 2017. "Variability in the effects of uncertainty shocks: New stylized facts from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-144.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on a Panel of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies: The Role of Exchange Rate, Trade and Financial Channels," Working Papers 201857, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Alhussaini, Abdullah & Parhi, Mamata, 2022. "How do economies adjust speed at uncertain times?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Prince Mensah Osei & Anokye Adam, 2021. "Threshold Cointegration Approach for Assessing the Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on Monetary Policy Decision of African Countries," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 68(4), pages 509-528, November.
    18. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    19. Lin Liu, 2021. "U.S. Economic Uncertainty Shocks and China’s Economic Activities: A Time-Varying Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    20. Meng Yan & Kai Shi, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from China’s Investment Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 457-495, July.

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