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Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO 2 sequestration

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  • Jie Bao
  • Zhangshuan Hou
  • Yilin Fang
  • Huiying Ren
  • Guang Lin

Abstract

A series of numerical test cases reflecting broad and realistic ranges of geological formation properties was developed to systematically evaluate and compare the impacts of those properties on pressure build‐up and ground surface displacement and therefore risks of induced seismicity during CO 2 injection. A coupled hydro‐geomechanical subsurface transport simulator, STOMP (Subsurface Transport over Multiple Phases), was adopted to simulate the migration of injected CO 2 and geomechanical behaviors of the surrounding geological formations. A quasi‐Monte Carlo sampling method was applied to efficiently sample a high‐dimensional parameter space consisting of injection rate and 12 other parameters describing hydrogeological properties of subsurface formations, including porosity, permeability, entry pressure, pore‐size index, Young's modulus, and Poisson's ratio for both reservoir and caprock. Generalized cross‐validation and analysis of variance methods were used to quantitatively measure the significance of the 13 input parameters. For the investigated two‐dimensional cases, reservoir porosity, permeability, and injection rate were found to be among the most significant factors affecting the geomechanical responses to the CO 2 injection, such as injection pressure and ground surface uplift. We used a quadrature generalized linear model to build a reduced‐order model that can estimate the geomechanical response instantly instead of running computationally expensive numerical simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Bao & Zhangshuan Hou & Yilin Fang & Huiying Ren & Guang Lin, 2013. "Uncertainty quantification for evaluating impacts of caprock and reservoir properties on pressure buildup and ground surface displacement during geological CO 2 sequestration," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(5), pages 338-358, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:greenh:v:3:y:2013:i:5:p:338-358
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ghg.1362
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng Cao & Hejuan Liu & Zhengmeng Hou & Faisal Mehmood & Jianxing Liao & Wentao Feng, 2020. "A Review of CO 2 Storage in View of Safety and Cost-Effectiveness," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-45, January.
    2. Jie Bao & Zhangshuan Hou & Yilin Fang & Huiying Ren & Guang Lin, 2015. "Uncertainty quantification for evaluating the impacts of fracture zone on pressure build‐up and ground surface uplift during geological CO2 sequestration," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 254-267, June.
    3. Víctor Vilarrasa & Jonny Rutqvist & Antonio Pio Rinaldi, 2015. "Thermal and capillary effects on the caprock mechanical stability at In Salah, Algeria," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 449-461, August.
    4. Jie Bao & Zhijie Xu & Yilin Fang, 2015. "A coupled discrete element and finite element model for multiscale simulation of geological carbon sequestration," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 474-486, August.

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