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A Bayesian belief network (BBN) for combining evidence from multiple CO 2 leak detection technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Ya‐Mei Yang
  • Mitchell J. Small
  • Egemen O. Ogretim
  • Donald D. Gray
  • Arthur W. Wells
  • Grant S. Bromhal
  • Brian R. Strazisar

Abstract

A Bayesian belief network (BBN) methodology is developed for integrating CO 2 leak detection inferences from multiple monitoring technologies at a geologic sequestration site. The methodology is demonstrated using two monitoring methods: near‐surface soil CO 2 flux measurement and near‐surface perfluoromethylcyclohexane (PMCH) tracer monitoring, from the Zero Emission Research and Technology (ZERT) release test in 2007. Statistical models are fitted to natural background soil CO 2 flux and background PMCH tracer concentrations to determine critical levels for leak inference. Leakage‐induced increments of soil CO 2 flux and PMCH tracer concentrations are computed through TOUGH2 simulations for different leakage rates and subsurface permeabilities. The background characterizations and the simulation results are subsequently used to determine the conditional probabilities of leak detection in the BBN model. The BBN model is illustrated for use in evaluating the performance of alternative monitoring networks in a network design phase, and for combining inferences from multiple observations in the operational phase of a site. The detection capabilities of combined networks with different monitoring densities for soil CO 2 flux and PMCH tracer concentration are compared. Given the test condition, the greater sensitivity of the PMCH tracer allows it to detect smaller leaks, while detection by the soil CO 2 flux monitors implies that a larger leak is most likely present. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Ya‐Mei Yang & Mitchell J. Small & Egemen O. Ogretim & Donald D. Gray & Arthur W. Wells & Grant S. Bromhal & Brian R. Strazisar, 2012. "A Bayesian belief network (BBN) for combining evidence from multiple CO 2 leak detection technologies," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 185-199, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:greenh:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:185-199
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    Cited by:

    1. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.
    2. Zan Wang & Mitchell J. Small, 2016. "Statistical performance of CO 2 leakage detection using seismic travel time measurements," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 55-69, February.
    3. Krause, Jette & Small, Mitchell J. & Haas, Armin & Jaeger, Carlo C., 2016. "An expert-based bayesian assessment of 2030 German new vehicle CO2 emissions and related costs," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 197-208.
    4. Zan Wang & Robert M. Dilmore & Diana H. Bacon & William Harbert, 2021. "Evaluating probability of containment effectiveness at a GCS site using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision network," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 360-376, April.
    5. Chen, Bailian & Harp, Dylan R. & Lin, Youzuo & Keating, Elizabeth H. & Pawar, Rajesh J., 2018. "Geologic CO2 sequestration monitoring design: A machine learning and uncertainty quantification based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 332-345.

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