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Sensitivity analysis of the build decision for carbon capture and sequestration projects

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  • Paul S. Fischbeck
  • David Gerard
  • Sean T. McCoy

Abstract

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is a technology that could allow for continued use of fossil fuels in a carbon‐constrained world, smoothing the transition to non‐fossil energy sources. Our objective is to assess the commercial viability of CCS given pervasive future uncertainties, particularly uncertainties about future natural gas and CO2 prices. Using data from the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), we develop an interactive Excel‐based spreadsheet tool to compare levelized‐average costs of four different new‐construction 500 MW power plants: natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) with CCS, NCGG without CCS, supercritical coal with CCS, and supercritical coal without CCS. With low natural gas prices, the NGCC without the sequestration option is the dominant technology. Overall, CCS projects for either natural gas or coal projects are unlikely to be the lowest‐cost option for CO2 prices less than $50 per ton. Finally, we examine several potential policy levers that could affect the deployment of CCS. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Paul S. Fischbeck & David Gerard & Sean T. McCoy, 2012. "Sensitivity analysis of the build decision for carbon capture and sequestration projects," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 36-45, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:greenh:v:2:y:2012:i:1:p:36-45
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    Cited by:

    1. Siefert, Nicholas S. & Litster, Shawn, 2013. "Exergy and economic analyses of advanced IGCC–CCS and IGFC–CCS power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 315-328.
    2. Yanchi Jiang & Zhongxiao Zhang & Haojie Fan & Junjie Fan & Haiquan An, 2018. "Experimental study on hybrid MS†CA system for post†combustion CO2 capture," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 379-392, April.

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