IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/envmet/v33y2022i3ne2722.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”

Author

Listed:
  • Peter W. Thorne

Abstract

While the real‐world has warmed in one unique way, the available data, which is spatio‐temporally incomplete and contains biases of unknown nature and timing, means this quantity can only ever be estimated. Craigmile and Guttorp (2022) propose an approach that optimally combines the range of existing products to gain a refined estimate. Implicit in this or, indeed, any similar approach, are assumptions about the available estimates representing both an unbiased and representative draw from the population of potential plausible estimates that could have been created. There are well‐founded reasons to doubt that this is the case. An alternative approach, used in the IPCC report, is to employ much simpler approaches which, in particular, hedge against underestimation of the true uncertainty in the evolution of global surface temperatures, and thus serve to future‐proof current estimates against subsequent dataset innovations arising from future improvements in our understanding.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter W. Thorne, 2022. "Discussion on “A combined estimate of global temperature”," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:3:n:e2722
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2722
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/env.2722?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blair Trewin, 2010. "Exposure, instrumentation, and observing practice effects on land temperature measurements," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 490-506, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fiorella Acquaotta & Simona Fratianni & Enric Aguilar & Guillaume Fortin, 2019. "Influence of instrumentation on long temperature time series," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 385-404, October.
    2. Bin Wang & De Li Liu & Ian Macadam & Lisa V. Alexander & Gab Abramowitz & Qiang Yu, 2016. "Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme temperature change using a statistical downscaling method in south eastern Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 85-98, September.
    3. Pengke Shen & Shuqing Zhao, 2021. "1/4 to 1/3 of observed warming trends in China from 1980 to 2015 are attributed to land use changes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:33:y:2022:i:3:n:e2722. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1180-4009/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.