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A nonparametric approach to detecting changes in variance in locally stationary time series

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  • J.‐L. Chapman
  • I. A. Eckley
  • R. Killick

Abstract

This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to detecting changes in variance within a time series that we demonstrate is resilient to departures from the assumption of normality or presence of outliers. Our method is founded on a local estimate of the variance provided by the locally stationary wavelet framework. Within this setting, the structure of this local estimate of the variance will be piecewise constant if a time series has piecewise constant variance. Consequently, changes in the variance of a time series can be detected in a nonparametric setting. In addition, using a simulation study, we explore the robustness of our approach against the typical assumption of normality and presence of outliers. We illustrate the application of the approach to changes in variability of wind speeds at a location in the United Kingdom.

Suggested Citation

  • J.‐L. Chapman & I. A. Eckley & R. Killick, 2020. "A nonparametric approach to detecting changes in variance in locally stationary time series," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:31:y:2020:i:1:n:e2576
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2576
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    Cited by:

    1. Trevor Harris & Bo Li & J. Derek Tucker, 2022. "Scalable multiple changepoint detection for functional data sequences," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), March.
    2. Bernard Twaróg, 2024. "Assessing Polarisation of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-31, September.
    3. Euan T. McGonigle & Rebecca Killick & Matthew A. Nunes, 2022. "Trend locally stationary wavelet processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 895-917, November.
    4. Wenqi Zhang & William Kleiber & Bri‐Mathias Hodge & Barry Mather, 2022. "A nonstationary and non‐Gaussian moving average model for solar irradiance," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), May.
    5. Shi, Xuesheng & Gallagher, Colin & Lund, Robert & Killick, Rebecca, 2022. "A comparison of single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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