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Age‐specific distributed lag models for heat ‐ related mortality

Author

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  • M. J. Heaton
  • C. R. Olenick
  • O. Wilhelmi

Abstract

Distributed lag (DL) models have been consistently used throughout the years to assess the cumulative impact of multiple days of high heat on public health. DL models, however, are often used on an aggregate level (e.g., city or census tracts) in spite of the fact that the effect of heat on health is individual specific, leading to possible ecological fallacies. To capture more individualized effects of heat on health, we propose a negative binomial regression model where the effect of lagged temperatures is age specific. Utilizing principles of predictive process models, we place appropriate smoothness and decay constraints on the associated DL surfaces. Furthermore, we borrow strength across ages to facilitate the estimation of the age‐specific DL function. Using death certificate data from the Texas Department of State Health Services, we show how different ages are impacted by consecutive days of high heat.

Suggested Citation

  • M. J. Heaton & C. R. Olenick & O. Wilhelmi, 2019. "Age‐specific distributed lag models for heat ‐ related mortality," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), November.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:30:y:2019:i:7:n:e2561
    DOI: 10.1002/env.2561
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    Cited by:

    1. Haydar Demirhan, 2020. "dLagM: An R package for distributed lag models and ARDL bounds testing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(2), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Vijendra Ingole & Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo & Anna Deluca & Marcos Quijal & Carme Borrell & Maica Rodríguez-Sanz & Hicham Achebak & Dirk Lauwaet & Joan Gilabert & Peninah Murage & Shakoor Hajat & Xavier Bas, 2020. "Spatial Variability of Heat-Related Mortality in Barcelona from 1992–2015: A Case Crossover Study Design," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-13, April.

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