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Statistics in the Jury Box: How Jurors Respond to Mitochondrial DNA Match Probabilities

Author

Listed:
  • David H. Kaye
  • Valerie P. Hans
  • B. Michael Dann
  • Erin Farley
  • Stephanie Albertson

Abstract

This article describes parts of an unusually realistic experiment on the comprehension of expert testimony on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing in a criminal trial for robbery. Specifically, we examine how jurors who responded to summonses for jury duty evaluated portions of videotaped testimony involving probabilities and statistics. Although some jurors showed susceptibility to classic fallacies in interpreting conditional probabilities, the jurors as a whole were not overwhelmed by a 99.98 percent exclusion probability that the prosecution presented. Cognitive errors favoring the defense were more prevalent than ones favoring the prosecution. These findings lend scant support to the legal argument that mtDNA evidence (with modest exclusion probabilities) should be excluded because jurors are prone to overvalue such evidence. The article also introduces a new method for inferring the perceived probability of guilt that satisfies the burden of persuasion for most jurors.

Suggested Citation

  • David H. Kaye & Valerie P. Hans & B. Michael Dann & Erin Farley & Stephanie Albertson, 2007. "Statistics in the Jury Box: How Jurors Respond to Mitochondrial DNA Match Probabilities," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(4), pages 797-834, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:4:y:2007:i:4:p:797-834
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-1461.2007.00107.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Scurich & Richard S. John, 2011. "Trawling Genetic Databases: When a DNA Match is Just a Naked Statistic," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(s1), pages 49-71, December.
    2. Jonathan J. Koehler, 2011. "If the Shoe Fits They Might Acquit: The Value of Forensic Science Testimony," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(s1), pages 21-48, December.
    3. William C. Thompson & Suzanne O. Kaasa & Tiamoyo Peterson, 2013. "Do Jurors Give Appropriate Weight to Forensic Identification Evidence?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 359-397, June.

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