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Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention

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  • Frank McIntyre
  • Shima Baradaran

Abstract

This article uses the nationally representative State Court Processing Statistics on felony defendants to analyze how judges decide if defendants should be held pretrial. We find a large (11 percentage points) racial gap in hold rates within a county. Judicial decisions are significantly influenced by the probability that the defendant will be rearrested pretrial for a violent felony. Controlling for this probability causes the racial gap in hold rates to disappear. Bail amounts follow the same pattern. The most plausible sources of bias—mismeasurement of the control probabilities or selection bias—likely either do not matter or cause an upward bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank McIntyre & Shima Baradaran, 2013. "Race, Prediction, and Pretrial Detention," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), pages 741-770, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:empleg:v:10:y:2013:i:4:p:741-770
    DOI: 10.1111/jels.12026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Amy L., 2002. "Individual and contextual influences on delinquency: the role of the single-parent family," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 575-587.
    2. Maddala,G. S., 1986. "Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521338257, September.
    3. Joseph Price & Justin Wolfers, 2010. "Racial Discrimination Among NBA Referees," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1859-1887.
    4. Eric Luis Uhlmann & Anthony Greenwald & Andrew Poehlmann & Mahzarin Banaji, 2009. "Understanding and Using the Implicit Association Test: III. Meta-Analysis of Predictive Validity," Post-Print hal-00516146, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Peter Hull, 2022. "Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2992-3038, September.
    2. Cristopher Moore & Elise Ferguson & Paul Guerin, 2023. "How accurate are rebuttable presumptions of pretrial dangerousness?: A natural experiment from New Mexico," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 377-408, June.
    3. Campbell, Christopher M. & Labrecque, Ryan M. & Weinerman, Michael & Sanchagrin, Ken, 2020. "Gauging detention dosage: Assessing the impact of pretrial detention on sentencing outcomes using propensity score modeling," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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