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Estimating Candidate Valence

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  • Kei Kawai
  • Takeaki Sunada

Abstract

We estimate valence measures of candidates running in U.S. House elections from data on vote shares. Our identification and estimation strategy builds on ideas developed for estimating production functions, allowing us to control for possible endogeneity of campaign spending and sample selection of candidates due to endogenous entry. We find that incumbents have substantially higher valence measures than challengers running against them, resulting in about 3.5 percentage‐point differences in the vote share, on average. Eliminating differences in the valence of challengers and incumbents results in an increase in the winning probability of a challenger from 6.5% to 12.1%. Our measure of candidate valence can be used to study various substantive questions of political economy. We illustrate its usefulness by studying the source of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Kei Kawai & Takeaki Sunada, 2025. "Estimating Candidate Valence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(2), pages 463-501, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:93:y:2025:i:2:p:463-501
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA20496
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