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Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement

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  • Valentin Bolotnyy
  • Shoshana Vasserman

Abstract

Most U.S. government spending on highways and bridges is done through “scaling” procurement auctions, in which private construction firms submit unit price bids for each piece of material required to complete a project. Using data on bridge maintenance projects undertaken by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), we present evidence that firm bidding behavior in this context is consistent with optimal skewing under risk aversion: firms limit their risk exposure by placing lower unit bids on items with greater uncertainty. We estimate the amount of uncertainty in each auction, and the distribution of bidders' private costs and risk aversion. Simulating equilibrium item‐level bids under counterfactual settings, we estimate the fraction of project spending that is due to risk and evaluate auction mechanisms under consideration by policymakers. We find that scaling auctions provide substantial savings relative to lump sum auctions and show how our framework can be used to evaluate alternative auction designs.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Bolotnyy & Shoshana Vasserman, 2023. "Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1205-1259, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emetrp:v:91:y:2023:i:4:p:1205-1259
    DOI: 10.3982/ECTA17673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yeon-Koo Che, 1993. "Design Competition through Multidimensional Auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(4), pages 668-680, Winter.
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    4. Valentin Bolotnyy & Shoshana Vasserman, 2023. "Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1205-1259, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Allen & Milena Wittwer, 2023. "Intermediary Market Power and Capital Constraints," Staff Working Papers 23-51, Bank of Canada.
    2. Leah Brooks & Zachary Liscow, 2023. "Infrastructure Costs," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Valentin Bolotnyy & Shoshana Vasserman, 2023. "Scaling Auctions as Insurance: A Case Study in Infrastructure Procurement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1205-1259, July.
    4. Rodrigo Carril & Andres Gonzalez-Lira & Michael S. Walker, 2022. "Competition under Incomplete Contracts and the Design of Procurement Policies," Working Papers 1327, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Vasserman, Shoshana & Watt, Mitchell, 2021. "Risk aversion and auction design: Theoretical and empirical evidence," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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